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Title: Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis
Authors: Belbute, José
Pereira, Alfredo
Keywords: CO2 emissions
long memory
ARFIMA model
Issue Date: 27-Dec-2016
Citation: Belbute, J. and A. Pereira, (2016); “Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis,” Applied Economics, (Forthcoming)
Abstract: In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks
Type: article
Appears in Collections:ECN - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica
CEFAGE - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica

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