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http://hdl.handle.net/10174/5972
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Title: | Estimating life expectancy in small population areas |
Authors: | Bravo, Jorge Malta, Joana |
Editors: | EUROSTAT - European Commission |
Keywords: | life expectancy estimation small population graduation methods |
Issue Date: | 2010 |
Publisher: | EUROSTAT - European Commission |
Citation: | Bravo, J. M., Malta, J. (2010). "Estimating life expectancy in small population areas". in EUROSTAT - European Commission (eds.), Work session on demographic projections, EUROSTAT-EC Collection: Methodologies and working papers, Theme: Population and Social Conditions, pp. 113-126 |
Abstract: | In recent years we have seen an increasing demand for indicators of mortality for smaller (sub-national,
sub-regional) areas, either to examine geographic inequalities in mortality, to monitor the effects of
Public Health policies, to inform local strategies or to prepare long-term sub-national population
projections. The usual way to obtain life expectancy indicators involves the construction of complete or
abridged life tables. Attempts to calculate mortality rates directly from small numbers of counts and
deaths often results in highly erratic schedules that are very difficult to interpret.
In this paper we give an in-depth overview of the method adopted by Statistics Portugal for estimating
life expectancy in small population (sub-national) areas (NUTS II and NUTS III). The method uses
parametric graduation techniques to smooth crude age-specific mortality rates in order to construct a
survival model presented in the form of a life table. We give an overview of parametric and nonparametric
graduation methods and revisit the graduation methodology developed by the Continuous
Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) and its extension to generalized linear models, recently adopted
by Statistics Portugal. The method uses a family of parametric (generalised Gompertz-Makeham)
functions estimated by means of generalized linear models in order to graduate crude mortality estimates.
We discuss the statistical tests and procedures used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the models. The
methodology is empirically tested using data for the Portuguese sub-national region of Lisbon and for the
period 2006-2008.
We conclude that the Gompertz-Makeham functions estimated by means of generalized linear models
offer a good alternative for estimating life expectancy in small population areas. The method is flexible
and applicable to mortality data for a wide range of ages from any geographical conditions. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/5972 |
ISBN: | 978-92-79-15862-9 |
ISSN: | 1977-0375 |
Type: | bookPart |
Appears in Collections: | CEFAGE - Publicações - Capítulos de Livros
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