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Title: Validation of 3-day rainfall forecast at the regional scale
Authors: Melo, Raquel
Oliveira, Sandra
Tomé, Ricardo
Ramos, Alexandre M.
Oliveira, Sérgio C.
Keywords: Rainfall forecast
Automatic meteorological stations
Forecast validation
R software
Issue Date: 2023
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: Melo, R. ; Oliveira, Sandra; Tomé, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.. "Validation of 3-day rainfall forecast at the regional scale". MethodsX 10 (2023): 102071.
Abstract: Nearly half of the natural disasters in the world are due to hydro-geomorphological hazards. Therefore, rainfall forecast is a key parameter for the implementation of landslides and flash-floods early warning systems. In this work we developed a routine in R software that enables the validation of a 3-day rainfall forecast by comparison with the daily rainfall data recorded in 101 automatic meteorological stations available in mainland Portugal. The routine integrates the pre-processing of base data, the matching between the 3-day rainfall forecast and the daily rainfall registered in the automatic meteorological stations based on sequence of days, the estimation of the difference between the forecasted and the real rainfall values and the computation of error measures, such as the bias, the mean absolute error, the mean absolute percentage error and the root mean square error. The results from the error measures, estimated for the 101 automatic meteorological stations, are then exported to an excel file. The routine is implemented for mainland Portugal and tested using data from February 2015, however, the spatial and temporal data can be easily updated for other regions.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:GEO - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica

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forecast_validation_revised.rScript21.77 kBR Programming LanguageView/Open
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