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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/30284
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Title: | Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal) |
Authors: | Caleiro, António Bento |
Keywords: | classification trees consumer confidence regression trees unemployment rate |
Issue Date: | 1-Sep-2021 |
Citation: | Caleiro, António Bento (2021). Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator
(in Portugal). Economies, 9, 125. |
Abstract: | The literature paid some attention, some time ago, to the relationship that, supposedly,
should exist between the level of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate. This relationship is interesting, both from a scientific point of view, given the inherently subjective character of that level of confidence, but also from the point of view of economic policy, given the importance of the
unemployment rate. In this article, that relationship is revisited, using learning models, namely
regression and classification trees. Using, for example, the case of Portugal, the unemployment rate presents itself as an adequate classifier of the consumer confidence level. The use of classification trees shows that the separation between low and high values of the consumer confidence indicator
is made from an adequate threshold value of the unemployment rate. The use of regression trees
shows that the levels of consumer confidence are inversely related to the levels of the unemployment rate. In terms of policy lessons, this confirms that, in the face of economic crises, such as the one we
are experiencing, in which confidence levels tend to fall and the unemployment rate increases, the relationship between these two variables cannot be ignored. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/30284 |
Type: | article |
Appears in Collections: | ECN - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica
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