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Title: Short-Term Forecasts of DNI from an Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF) for Optimized Operational Strategies of a Central Receiver System
Authors: Lopes, Francisco
Conceição, Ricardo
Silva, Hugo
Fasquelle, Thomas
Salgado, Rui
Canhoto, Paulo
Collares-Pereira, Manuel
Editors: Min, Adele
Keywords: short-term forecasts
direct normal irradiance
concentrating solar power
system advisor model
operational strategies
central solar receiver
Issue Date: 15-Apr-2019
Publisher: Energies
Citation: Francis M. Lopes, Ricardo Conceição, Thomas Fasquelle, Hugo G. Silva, Rui Salgado, Paulo Canhoto, Manuel Collares-Pereira. Short-term Forecasts of DNI from the Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF) for Optimized Operational Strategies of a Central Receiver System. Energies 2019, 12, 1368.
Abstract: Short-term forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the global numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used in the simulation of a solar power tower, through the System Advisor Model (SAM). Recent results demonstrated that DNI forecasts have been enhanced, having the potential to be a suitable tool for plant operators that allows achieving higher energy efficiency in the management of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, particularly during periods of direct solar radiation intermittency. The main objective of this work was to assert the predictive value of the IFS forecasts, regarding operation outputs from a simulated central receiver system. Considering a 365-day period, the present results showed an hourly correlation of ≈0.78 between the electric energy injected into the grid based on forecasted and measured data, while a higher correlation was found for the daily values (≈0.89). Operational strategies based on the forecasted results were proposed for plant operators regarding the three different weather scenarios. Although there were still deviations due to the cloud and aerosol representation, the IFS forecasts showed a high potential to be used for supporting informed energy dispatch decisions in the operation of central receiver units.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:ICT - Publicações - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais Com Arbitragem Científica

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