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Title: Predictive Value of Short-term Forecasts of DNI for Solar Energy Systems Operation
Authors: Lopes, Francisco
Conceição, Ricardo
Silva, Hugo
Salgado, Rui
Canhoto, Paulo
Collares-Pereira, Manuel
Editors: Richter, Christoph
Keywords: Short-term Forecasts
Direct Normal Irradiance
System Advisor Model
Issue Date: 5-Oct-2018
Publisher: SolarPACES 2018 Conference Proceedings
Citation: Lopes, FM, Conceição, R, Silva, HG, Salgado, R, Canhoto, P, Collares-Pereira, M. Predictive Value of Short-term Forecasts of DNI for Solar Energy Systems Operation. SolarPACES 2018 Conference, 02-05 October 2018, Casablanca, Morocco.
Abstract: Results are part of a preliminary analysis concerning the value of DNI predictions from the IFS for the improvement of the operationalization of a CST system with similar configurations as the Andasol 3 CST power plant. For a 365-day period, the present results show high correlations between predictions of energy to grid based on measurements and IFS forecasts mainly for daily values (~0.94), while the lower correlations obtained for hourly values (~0.89) are due to cloud representation of the IFS during overcast periods, leading to small deviations with respect to those from measurements. Moreover, as means to measure the forecasting skill of the IFS, daily and hourly skill scores based on local measurements and a persistence model are obtained (0.67 and 0.53, respectively), demonstrating that the IFS has a good overall performance. These aspects show the value that forecasted DNI has in the operation management of CST power systems, and, consequently, in the electricity market.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:ICT - Artigos em Livros de Actas/Proceedings

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