What Drives Sustainable Development in Europe? A Panel and Fuzzy Analysis of Cohesion and Non-Cohesion Countries

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is highly committed to the 2030 Agenda. However, the EU countries’ structural heterogeneity and differ-ing stages of development complicate the efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and raise questions aboutwhether uniform policies can effectively address diverse needs. To analyze the determinants of the SDG Index score (SDG_IS),the EU-27 countries were considered over the 2012–2023 period, grouped into Cohesion and Non-Cohesion countries, and paneldata regression models and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) were applied as complementary approaches. Thepanel data regression results revealed a main decoupling: while in Cohesion countries, Gross Domestic Product per capita sig-nificantly drove SDG_IS attainment, it lost statistical significance in Non-Cohesion countries, where institutional transparencyand inequality reduction emerged as the main drivers. The fsQCA analysis revealed pronounced equifinality, identifying five dis-tinct pathways to high SDG_IS attainment in Cohesion countries and only two in Non-Cohesion countries. Overall, by revealingthat as countries develop, the determinants of sustainability may shift from material wealth accumulation to governance qual-ity and distributive justice and that the same level of SDG_attainment can be obtained through qualitatively different causalconfigurations, our findings challenge the paradigm of “one-size-fits-all” that underlies the current EU cohesion policy and pro-vide an empirical foundation for redesigning EU policies around differentiated, context-sensitive interventions: growth-orientedstrategies for Cohesion countries and governance-quality strategies for Non-Cohesion countries, aligned with smart specializationprinciples.