Dynamics of Pan-European Connectivity Under Future Scenarios (D6.3): Maps of conservation and restoration value for corridors under different scenarios

Abstract

Ensuring an adequate and resilient protected area network requires an understanding of how ecological connectivity will be maintained into the future. We used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Nature Future Framework (NFF) scenarios to investigate the impacts of future land-use and climate on the structural and functional connectivity of the European protected area network. Furthermore, NFF scenarios included an expanded Trans-European Nature Network (TEN-N) in its projections of future land use allowing for the comparison of futures with and without an expanded and connected network. We used circuit-theory and graph-based approaches developed in previous NaturaConnect analyses to quantify changes in connectivity metrics that result from climate and land-use changes and the inclusion of TEN-N. We modelled omnidirectional connectivity and calculated graph metrics for four different species archetypes across the six different future scenarios. We found that there was a substantial decrease in cost distance (i.e., permeability increased) for the species archetypes when considering the NFF scenarios and SSP1, while cost distance increased within SSP3 and especially SSP2 scenarios. Probability of connectivity was also much improved with the inclusion of TEN-N, especially for the Nature for Nature scenario and for large carnivores and bats. Comparisons of key priority corridors identified from omnidirectional models highlighted persistent consensus corridors across scenarios and emerging priority areas for connectivity restoration.